MITCH HORUCY
Asst. Sports Editor
Image property of the Buffalo Bills.
Over the past five years, there have been a few constants in life: death, taxes and the Buffalo Bills hosting a Wild Card game in Orchard Park.
Despite not even being favored to win their division, the Bills won their fifth consecutive AFC East title.
Before discussing the Bills upcoming playoff matchup with the Broncos, the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award needs to be talked about.
My pick for the 2024 NFL MVP is Josh Allen.
Allen finished the season with 4,262 total yards, 41 total touchdowns and eight turnovers.
This has become one of the most debated and controversial MVP races in recent memory, however, due to Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and the season he’s having.
Jackson finished with 5,087 total yards, 45 total touchdowns and nine total turnovers.
It’s also worth noting that Jackson played one more game than Allen due to Allen only playing one snap in Week 18.
When comparing pure stats, it’s easy to see why Jackson is agreed upon by so many to receive the award, but context is very important.
ESPN Analyst Dan Orlovsky had an interesting take when discussing the award during ESPN’s “Get Up” talk show.
“If we’re just going to go off stats, remove the votes. Just have the computers tell us who wins,” said Orlovsky.
A stat that doesn’t show up in the box score but is incredibly telling in this debate is a combination of time to throw and average receiver separation for quarterbacks.
Stats for combination of time to throw and average receiver separation for quarterbacks are incredibly telling in this debate, but they don’t show up in the box score.
All stats are according to Pro Football Focus, or PFF.
Receiver separation is an average measure of how open a quarterback’s pass catchers typically get, while time to throw is exactly how it sounds: how much time a quarterback has to throw the ball until the opposing defense gets to them.
This only includes quarterbacks who have a minimum of 200 pass attempts.
When it comes to time to throw, Jackson is a close second in the league behind Eagles QB Jalen Hurts with just about 3.20 seconds per attempt.
Allen comes in at 13th with 2.88 seconds per attempt.
As for average separation of receivers, PFF doesn’t post the official numbers, but by using a graphic by @throwthedamball on social media platform X, it’s easy to understand where each quarterback stands.
Jackson has the best average separation in the league, with a sizable margin over Saints QB Derek Carr, who sits in second place.
On the other hand, Allen ranks second worst in average separation in the league, just ahead of Steelers QB Justin Fields.
Allen also became the second player with 40 or more touchdowns in five different seasons, joining Jets QB Aaron Rodgers.
Allen, however, became the first to do so in five consecutive seasons.
That’s all I’ll say on the MVP conversation.
The Bills finished as the number two seed in the AFC, setting up a matchup with the seventh seed Denver Broncos.
Three keys I have for the Bills are: play from ahead, rally to the ball and own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Starting with the first key, it’s critical that the offense gets off to a nice start and puts pressure on the Denver offense early.
The Bills are tied for first in the NFL with a touchdown on 47% of their first offensive drives of the game.
The Broncos are tied for 13th in the league with a touchdown on 24% of their opening drives.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completes 23% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, the second most in the league.
Nix also has the fourth shortest average depth of target amongst starting playoff quarterbacks, which means he doesn’t throw the ball downfield often.
If the offense can generate an early lead and make Nix push the ball downfield more than he’d like, that’d be a win for the Bills.
The second key builds off the first key in a way. Due to the Broncos not pushing the ball downfield a ton, they throw a lot of screen passes.
This season they threw 99 screens, third most in the NFL.
They’ve generated 20 first downs, good for sixth in the NFL, and five touchdowns, tied for second in the league on those screen passes.
They also have 518 yards on screens, fourth most in the league.
This will be a huge game for Buffalo’s secondary not just for their coverage, but for their tackling as well.
Among cornerbacks and safeties that have played at least 800 snaps, the Bills have three players in the top 20 in lowest missed tackle percentage, including two in the top four.
Linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano will also need to be on their game and fly to the ball.
The third and final key is to own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
I think the matchup of the game is the Buffalo offensive line versus the Denver front seven.
The Broncos are third in the league in rushing yards per game, giving up just 96 yards.
The Bills come into the game averaging 131 rushing yards per game, ninth in the league.
Buffalo has only allowed 14 quarterback sacks, the best in the NFL by eight sacks.
Denver has 63 sacks this season, nine more than the second place Ravens.
The Broncos also are second in pressure percentage. Their defense only has 78 missed tackles as well, third best in the league.
As far as a prediction, I think the Bills will take care of business.
There’s definitely reason for concern, such as the Denver defense and the lack of Buffalo defense as of late, but it will be too much for the Broncos to overcome.
After a slow opening quarter, the defense will generate a turnover off of Bo Nix and the team won’t look back after that.
Allen may not have superb stats this game, but he will get the job done, setting up a must-watch matchup between the Bills and the Ravens.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Broncos 13
Super Wild Card Predictions!
Los Angeles (A) vs Houston Texans (Saturday, Jan. 11, 4:30 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Chargers -3
Mitch: 28-13 Los Angeles (A)
Matt: 37-27 Los Angeles (A)
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore (Saturday, Jan. 11, 8 p.m. on Prime Video)
Favorite: Baltimore -9.5
Mitch: 34-20 Baltimore
Matt: 20-13 Baltimore
Denver vs Buffalo (Sunday Jan. 12, 1 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Buffalo -8.5
Mitch: 31-13 Buffalo
Matt: 34-21 Buffalo
Green Bay vs Philadelphia (Sunday Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m. on FOX)
Favorite: Philadelphia -4.5
Mitch: 34-31 Philadelphia
Matt: 31-27 Philadelphia
Washington vs Tampa Bay (Sunday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m. on NBC)
Favorite: Tampa Bay -3
Mitch: 35-28 Tampa Bay
Matt: 27-23 Washington
Minnesota vs Los Angeles (N) (Monday, Jan. 13, 8 p.m. on ABC)
Favorite: Minnesota -1
Mitch: 32-29 Los Angeles (N)
Matt: 28-24 Minnesota