MITCH HORUCY
Sports Editor
Somehow, someway, the Buffalo Bills are 7-3 after week 11 of the NFL season.
When most Bills fans thought all hope was lost, the team sits comfortably in a playoff spot.
With seven games remaining in the regular season, a lot can happen, but the Bills are still very much in the conversation to win a Super Bowl.
In an exciting back and forth game, the Bills won a shootout over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a final score of 44-32.
Josh Allen reintroduced himself to the MVP conversation with a sensational game, finishing with 357 total yards and six total touchdowns.
I was a big fan of how the ball was distributed, with nine players having a reception and six with multiple.
Tyrell Shavers was a pleasant sight to see and should surpass a 50% snap count in every game moving forward.
The run game wasn’t very effective, but the Bucs have a top 10 rush defense in the league.
I don’t feel too strongly about the bad performance, and I assume James Cook and the rest of the run game is fine.
It was great to see the offense produce at this level, especially after their performance against Miami.
The defense played well when Tampa Bay had to throw the ball, but the run defense continues to be a problem.
They give up more than 150 yards per game, which is in the bottom three of the league.
I’m not sure how much in-season adjustments can help, but they have to do something.
In what feels like forever ago, the Bills didn’t make a single move at the trade deadline on Nov. 4.
I wasn’t a fan when it happened, and I still am not too happy about it.
In the game against the Miami Dolphins in week 10, Buffalo’s biggest weakness was on full display: the lack of an alpha receiver.
Allen had an average time-to-throw of 3.53 seconds in their loss that game, the longest mark in his career.
While having time to throw is a good thing, there’s a sweet spot when it comes to this stat.
Out of the quarterbacks with the top 10 total EPA, expected points added; Allen is the one of two quarterbacks with an average time-to-throw over 2.7 seconds, with Allen at 2.80 seconds and Jalen Hurts at 2.86 seconds.
His sack percentage is also 7.07%; this would be the highest in his career since his 2019 campaign.
His pressure percentage is higher than last year’s, but it’s right around where it’s been for the past three seasons.
This is a result of not having a receiver that can constantly win on the outside and down the field.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been good, already matching his yardage from last season and is on pace to set career highs in almost every receiving category.
Cook and Khalil Shakir have also been good, with Cook being closer to great.
However, Keon Coleman hasn’t taken the step they wanted and needed him to take this season.
Coleman was a healthy scratch this past Sunday after reportedly being late for a team meeting on Friday.
The report from Tom Pelissero that the Bills and Dolphins couldn’t agree on terms for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is disappointing, to say the least.
Pelissero’s report is that the Bills offered a 2027 first-round pick, but the Dolphins wanted it to be a 2026 first-round pick.
If this is the case, this is a huge stain on Brandon Beane’s tenure as General Manager for the Buffalo Bills.
While he’s done great things, i.e. drafting Josh Allen, he has failed Allen over the past couple of seasons.
He famously went on The Joe & Jeremy Show on WGR 550, the leading sports radio station in Buffalo after the NFL draft this past April.
“You guys were b—-ing in 2018 about Josh Allen, you wanted Josh Rosen,” Beane said of hosts Joe DiBiase and Jeremy White. “And now you guys are b—-ing that we don’t have a receiver. I don’t get it.”
At the time, I could understand where Beane was coming from, but after seeing Allen and the receivers struggle and fail to make a move, that’s a huge letdown by Beane.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has also had a disappointing season, even with the lack of talent at receiver.
NFL analysts have called the offense “predictable” amongst other things.
Going forward, I think the offense needs to commit to playing under center for a majority of the game, lower Coleman’s snap count and give Cook a minimum of 20 carries a game.
The defense has been banged up, but it’s been solid over the past few weeks.
The Bills have a short week this week, as they travel to Houston for a Thursday night matchup.
Last season, Houston was a house of horrors for the Bills, but I think that changes.
At the time of writing, it hasn’t been determined what C.J. Stroud’s health for the game will be, but I think the Bills win regardless.
The Texans’ defense is legit; Buffalo’s offense will need to come to play.
On the other side of the ball, I think the Bills defense sees a ton of success against the Houston offense.
Outside of Nico Collins, the Texans’ offense doesn’t have any true threats on the perimeter.
An inconsistent run game also favors the Bills.
Where I think Buffalo’s defense will really see success is against the Texans offensive line.
They are bad, in the bottom five in the league in most metrics.
I think Deone Walker, Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau all have great games en route to a win.
Going on the road on a short week is always reason to worry, but I think the Bills start to get hot and win.
Final prediction:
Bills 33 – Texans 16
I’ve said this in past issues, but the AFC is as wide open as it’s ever been.
Watching the Bills throw away maybe their best opportunity at a ring due to lack of offensive consistency would be heartbreaking.
As they enter their toughest stretch of the season, the Bills will need to play great football, which they have shown they can do.
The question is whether they can do it consistently. Only time will tell.
