JOSEPH MORETTO
Special to The Leader
Almost four months after the unexpected attack on Israel, we have seen tragedies unlike any other taking place in the Gaza Strip.
Yet in those four months, the unexpected attack and the Israeli response have grown into a wider, reinvigorated conflict with Iranian proxies in the Middle East that is set to determine much of American foreign policy for the foreseeable future.
Ivani Vassoler-Froelich, a professor in Fredonia’s political science department, exemplified this: “The current conflict will postpone, once more, the U.S. strategy to withdraw from the Middle East and focus more on East Asia. This has been a decade-long U.S. foreign policy debate.”
So, with all this rapid change in action, what will Iran gain from all of this?
The despicable events that took place on Oct. 7, 2023, saw the murder of 695 civilians and 30 children as well as hundreds of police and soldiers. The world stood in solidarity with Israel until the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) began counterattacks with seemingly no care for the collateral lives to be lost. Vassoler-Froelich added that, “The attack on Israel in 1973 was perpetrated by a coalition of mostly Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria.”
With indiscriminate bombings and raids on communities, 25,000 Palestinian lives have been lost. A majority of people united behind the humanitarian catastrophe of the innocent Palestinians, including Iranian proxy groups: Hamas, the group whose attack prompted this response, Hezbollah, the fully-funded military terrorist organization in Lebanon, and the Houthi Rebels, situated in Yemen.
To understand the weight of the attacks in October, the history of the last 50 years must be examined. The events of Oct. 6 are a scar that’s been ripped open again; the Yom Kippur War that lasted from Oct. 6, 1973, to Oct. 24 of that same year was a surprise attack led by Egypt, hoping to take back the Sinai Peninsula lost a little less than a decade back, as well as Syria, hoping to do the same along the northern border.
It’s important to add that this conflict also had a predecessor, as Vassoler-Froelich mentioned, “Syria tried to recover the Golan Heights region, a territory captured by Israel as well as the Sinai, during the 1967 Six-Day War.” The war is considered an Israeli victory in the sense that the nation was at existential risk with only a few hours to prepare.
The vicious war lasted less than one month and had 68,539 total casualties in less than three weeks. Hostilities with Egypt ended on Nov. 11, 1973, and with Syria in May of 1973.
In 1978, the leaders of Israel and Egypt met in Camp David, a United States presidential retreat, to organize the withdrawal of Israel from the Sinai Peninsula over four years to see the border of Egypt and Israel that exists today. Vassoler-Froelich recognized the importance of this treaty between these two warring nations: “The peace between Israel and Egypt was possible thanks to the U.S. efforts towards the signing of the Camp David Agreements, normalizing diplomatic relations between both countries.”
With regional control being a part of Iranian national interests, Israel has been one of the biggest hurdles to Iran in their fight for regional supremacy. With Israeli forces bolstered by American aid and no borders with Israel, Iran has few conventional solutions to attacking the Israeli state. This is why today we are seeing attacks from terrorist organizations, which are all a part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” an unofficial alliance of groups funded and trained by Iran since the ’70s, but not given a name until the 2010s.
Iran saw success in forming its Axis of Resistance by uniting the normally divisive Islamic Sunni and Shia groups against a common enemy, Israel. Each member has their own set goals to push Iranian influence throughout the Middle East.
The purpose of Hamas to Iran was seen clearly on Oct.7 as a resource to stir conflict with Israel; no other groups could inflict the damage that Hamas could, sitting almost in the heart of the Jewish state.
The Houthi rebels have always been a commerce disruption tool with their presence in the Red Sea.
Hezbollah is Iran’s most dangerous weapon, with access to modern military equipment and bases in Lebanon.
The attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, caused a likely intended casus belli (event that invokes war) for Iran’s axis, as its members quickly voiced their support for Hamas and acted accordingly.
The Houthis blocked the Gulf of Aden, preventing Israeli shipping from leaving ports in the Red Sea. Border attacks from Hezbollah near the Golan Heights put pressure on the IDF to redirect attention to its northern border, instead of the Gaza Strip.
With Iranian proxies making moves throughout the Middle East, the next question to ask is, “What does Iran seek to gain from this?” The U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East before Oct. 7, 2023, was aimed at pushing for the signing of the Abraham Accords — a series of historic agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The Accords seek to normalize relations between the nations, with much of the Middle East expected to follow shortly after.
The normalization of relations with Israel would be a large setback for Iran, as a major part of Iran’s national interest lies in the elimination of foreign/Western influence. A treaty being organized by the United States to protect Israeli existence undermines Iran’s interests. The signing and adoption of the Abraham Accords would see historic peace in the Middle East and an end to Arab-Jewish conflicts at the state level.
Vassoler-Froelich also believes in the importance of the Accords but is cautious of its future: “The Accords have the potential to increase multilateral trade and investment among Israel and other signatories. The normalization of diplomatic relations is a significant first step. Yet bringing peace in the Middle East is unclear so far when we consider the Palestinian cause, an independent state, is resolved. It is unclear whether the Abraham Accords contemplate a response to the Palestinian plight.”
The Abraham Accords are still in progress despite the political turmoil they have been through, with the abuse of Palestinians causing objections from the Arab members. The Saudis froze talks with Israel over normalization on Oct. 14, 2023.
As the fight for Palestinians and their right to simply exist persists, the guilty parties must be held accountable for their crimes. It is also critical to look to those who instigated this fight in the first place. There are two nations to blame for the crimes being committed against Palestinians: Israel, but also Iran, for organizing and funding the groups involved.