MITCH HORUCY
Asst. Sports Editor
For just the second time this century, the presumed Most Valuable Player (MVP) and runner-up to the award will meet in their conference playoffs, as Josh Allen welcomes Lamar Jackson to Orchard Park.
The only other time this occurred was when MVP winner Peyton Manning faced runner-up Tom Brady in the 2013 AFC Championship.
This will mark the fifth time the two quarterbacks go head-to-head as starters, with each player having two wins apiece.
Allen has the lone playoff head-to-head win over Jackson, coming in the 2020-21 season.
Before getting into this matchup, there’s a lot to take away from the Bills’ wild card game against the Broncos.
I was in attendance, and it was an unreal atmosphere. Weather-wise, it was possibly the best January game ever played in Buffalo.
This game went almost exactly as I thought it would.
My prediction was 31-13, almost hitting the hammer right on the head.
My biggest takeaway was the offensive line and the run game.
As mentioned in my Broncos vs. Bills preview, the Broncos came into Orchard Park allowing just 96 rushing yards per game, which was third best in the league.
The Bills totaled 210 yards on the ground, 61 yards more than their previous season high.
Buffalo also averaged 4.8 yards per carry, almost a yard higher than Denver’s season average allowed.
On top of that, the Bills had 143 yards before contact, 34 yards more than Denver’s previous season high.
This is by far the best run game and the best offensive line Allen has had since he’s joined the Bills.
Another takeaway I had was the great showcase of the “everybody eats” motto we’ve heard all year.
Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving, which isn’t out of the norm, but outside of him, seven different players caught passes.
Curtis Samuel had a huge play, as his 55-yard touchdown was essentially the dagger.
Dalton Kincaid had a big catch down the sideline, and Ty Johnson once again made a huge play on a fourth-and-1 that led to a 24-yard touchdown.
Several others also contributed to Buffalo’s offense.
The Ravens’ defense has turned around its season and is very talented in the secondary. It’s going to be important to spread the ball on Sunday like we saw against Denver.
Moving onto this week’s matchup, it can’t be expressed enough how big of a game awaits the Bills.
Regardless of if Allen or Jackson wins the MVP, Sunday’s game will be looked back on to help prove a point on who should’ve won the award.
Despite their one previous playoff matchup, this will be the first time they meet in front of a full stadium in the postseason.
The Ravens and Bills met in Week 4 of this season, with Baltimore winning 35-10.
While this was a convincing win, Buffalo was missing Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson, and had an overall banged-up roster.
This time around, the Bills are completely healthy.
While there’s way more than three keys to beating this Ravens team, there’s three that I believe are the most important and impactful: play turnover-free, slow down the rushing attack and feed off the moment.
This season, the Bills lead the NFL in turnover margin with a margin of +24.
The Ravens sit at 10th in the league with a margin of +6.
In terms of total takeaways, the Bills are at 33, while the Ravens have just about half of that with 17.
However, the Ravens’ defense has improved greatly, with 12 of those turnovers coming in the last 11 games.
Baltimore already ranks fifth in average time of possession, or TOP, per game with just over 31 minutes. They drop to 15th in the league when it comes to TOP on the road.
Similarly, Buffalo is 12th overall in TOP, but jumps to fifth when it comes to the same stat at home.
If Buffalo can avoid gifting the Ravens possessions with turnovers and limiting their time on the field, it would be a huge step toward a win.
The second key is much easier said than done, but is crucial to the teams’ chances of winning.
Dating back to 2019, in each of the Bills’ playoff losses, they’ve allowed at least 140 or more rushing yards in all but one game.
The Ravens will walk into Highmark Stadium Sunday averaging 194 rushing yards per game, the highest since their own 2019 team. Even more impressive, they’re at an intimidating 256 yards per game over the past three games.
In the last four matchups, the Ravens averaged 175 rushing yards per game against the Bills.
If Buffalo wants any chance of winning, this number has to decrease.
In slowing down the run, not only do you take away their best offensive attack, you make Baltimore throw the ball, something they don’t like doing.
In games where Jackson throws 30 or more passes, the Ravens are 3-5, compared to 9-0 when he throws less than 30.
Similarly, when Derrick Henry has 20 or less carries, the Ravens are 5-5, compared to 7-0 when he has 20 or more.
Also, of those 10 games Henry had 20 or less carries, six of them were on the road.
To end things off about my second point, when the Ravens have 200 or more rushing yards, they’re 7-0; when they’re under 200, they’re 5-5.
If they want any chance at winning, the run game has to be neutralized in some fashion.
My final key really has nothing to do with stats or X’s and O’s, but everything to do with the heart and passion that is expected to make an appearance at Sunday’s game.
No team has ever lost in the divisional round of the playoffs four years in a row, but the Bills are on the verge of that.
This is the first time the team has been an underdog at home since Week 17 of the 2020 season, a game where they rested their starters.
It also will be the first time since joining the NFL that the Bills are a playoff underdog at home, ending an 18-game streak.
It was never supposed to get to this point when training camp started in July. Many didn’t even have the Bills making the playoffs at all, let alone being the two seed.
The years of Josh Allen being a top-three player on the planet won’t keep happening forever, so this could be a franchise-altering win.
For most players on the team, this is the biggest game of their career.
With all that being said, I think they get it done.
It will come down to one possession, and more specifically, one play.
Josh Allen will put on his cape and will this team to victory.
It won’t be easy, but the Bills will be heading to Arrowhead for a rematch with the Chiefs after Sunday.
Prediction: Bills 37- Ravens 31
Divisional Round Predictions!
Standings:
Mitch: 4-2
Matt: 4-2
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, Jan 18, 4:30 p.m. on ABC)
Favorite: Kansas City -8.5
Mitch: 28-17 Kansas City
Matt: 20-16 Kansas City
Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions (Saturday, Jan 18, 8 p.m. on FOX)
Favorite: Detroit -9.5
Mitch: 35-24 Detroit
Matt: 41-31 Detroit
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 19, 3 p.m. NBC)
Favorite: Philadelphia -5.5
Mitch: 32-27 Los Angeles
Matt: 34-28 Los Angeles
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills (Sunday, Jan 19, 6:30 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Baltimore -1
Mitch: 37-31 Buffalo
Matt: 30-24 Buffalo