MITCH HORUCY
Asst. Sports Editor
Image property of the Buffalo Bills.
For the fourth time since 2020, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs will meet with their seasons on the line.
For the second time in that span, they’ll meet in the AFC Championship, with the winner earning a trip to the Super Bowl.
After a full year of both teams being constantly doubted and criticized, it’ll once again be Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, a rivalry that’s becoming one of the best in league history.
Last week, the Bills took care of the visiting Baltimore Ravens to get to this game.
It was a game that surprised a lot of people, including myself.
It was the most conservative offensive performance I’ve seen in a Bills playoff game since Allen became the starter.
In fact, it was almost too conservative as the team started the second half off with two punts, allowing the Ravens to get back into the game.
The play that comes to mind when discussing this conservatism took place in the third quarter, with the Bills leading 21-13.
On a third-and-5 from the team’s own 43-yard line, they ran a bubble screen to tight end Dawson Knox for no gain.
They then punted back to the Ravens, which led to a touchdown drive ending with a failed two-point conversion.
The Bills kicked a field goal, then forced a Mark Andrews fumble which led to another field goal.
Lamar Jackson led a great touchdown drive to make it a 27-25 game, pending a two-point conversion.
Andrews then made an even bigger mistake than the fumble, dropping a wide open catch to keep the Bills lead at two.
Despite the win, the conservative play-calling almost cost the team and won’t work against the Chiefs.
Speaking of that game, this is the best chance the Bills have to finally climb the mountain and beat the boogeyman that is the Chiefs.
Once again, there’s three keys that can lead to a trip to New Orleans for the Bills: don’t rely on turnovers, live or die with Josh Allen, and remember the history.
Starting with the first key, the defense cannot rely on turnovers to win this game.
Including playoffs, the Bills are +27 in the turnover margin, best in the league by 10.
Many people, including myself, believe they beat the Ravens due to their +3 differential.
While this is a great stat to showcase one of the strengths of this team, it may be a non-factor against the Chiefs.
In his three games against the Bills, Mahomes has yet to turn the ball over. The Chiefs as a whole only had two turnovers in those three games.
If the defensive game plan for the Bills going into Sunday is to give up yards and rely on forcing turnovers like they did against Baltimore, that won’t work against Kansas City.
With that being said, if they can produce a turnover or two and finish positive in the turnover margin, it’s one step closer to finally dethroning KC.
The second key is fairly simple: the game has to be decided by Josh Allen.
Allen recorded 22 pass attempts and finished with 127 passing yards against the Ravens, both the lowest in his playoff career.
It was also the third time he didn’t have a passing touchdown, but the only time he’s won without doing so.
In Allen’s three games against the Chiefs, he has nine touchdowns to just one turnover, to go along with 343 total yards per game.
In Mahomes’ three playoff losses, the opposing quarterback has had at least 195 passing yards in those games, two of them with 240 or more yards.
If offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to utilize the run game early in the game, which he should, it could lead to great things.
But when the fourth quarter comes and it’s a close game, the ball has to be in Allen’s hands.
The third point is similar to last weeks, but slightly different.
Last week I emphasized being in the moment, using the home crowd to their advantage and playing with as much energy as possible.
This week it’s much of the same, but now it should be personal for the Bills.
These guys have ended your season three of the last four years.
They’re the beast you have to get through if you want a chance to win it all.
It was a year ago when they came into your place and sent you home.
Everything is out in front of them, they have to go take it.
This is the best the team has matched up with the Chiefs since Allen has become a starter.
With that said, I think the Bills finally slay the beast.
As I mentioned, I think Allen will finally have his moment and make a huge play in the fourth quarter to win the game.
The defense will have to play lights out and the offense can’t have turnovers, and I think both things happen.
Prediction: Bills 24 – Chiefs 20
Championship Round Predictions!
Standings:
Mitch: 6-4
Matt: 6-4
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 26, 3 p.m. on FOX)
Favorite: Philadelphia -6
Mitch: 27-23 Philadelphia
Matt: 31-20 Philadelphia
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, Jan. 26, 6:30 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Kansas City -2
Mitch: 24-20 Buffalo
Matt: 27-21 Buffalo