Mitchell Horucy
Assistant Sports Editor
As the regular season comes to an end, the NFL playoffs are just getting started with the first Wild Card game at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 13.
Despite everything that the Buffalo Bills have been through this season, such as firing their offensive coordinator, a head coach controversy and crushing injuries, they made the playoffs.
Not only did they make the playoffs, they also won the AFC East for the fourth straight year.
Coming into the year, the Bills were the favorites to win the division.
However, after a disappointing stretch, they held a record of 6-6 going into the bye week, with only a 4% chance at winning the division.
After the bye, the Bills won five straight games bringing them back into playoff contention.
The division leader at the time, the Miami Dolphins, held a three game lead over the Bills at the time.
They went on to lose two of their next four games, setting up a winner-take-all game in Miami against the Bills.
After a lackluster start to the game from the Bills, they went on to win the final game of the NFL’s 272-game schedule over the Dolphins and clinch the AFC East.
Heading into the playoffs as the two seed, the Bills have a favorable schedule matchup-wise, in my opinion.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming into Orchard Park for a Wild Card matchup at 1 p.m. on Sunday, Jan. 14.
Sunday will mark the fourth all-time playoff meeting between the Bills and Steelers, and it will be the first one ever to be played in Buffalo.
Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin will undoubtedly have his team ready to go, but they will be without their top player and potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt.
The Steelers’ offense has improved after the midseason firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, but is still below average as a unit.
After starting Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky, the Steelers seemed to have settled on former Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Keeping second-year wide receiver George Pickens, a big play machine, in check will be a focal point for this Bills defense.
I think one of the biggest keys for the Bills to win this game is how well each team does on 3rd down.
The Bills lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate with a rate of 49%.
The Steelers have a conversion rate of 36%, which puts them at 22nd in the league.
If the Bills can keep drives going, while at the same time keeping the Steelers offense off the field, it would be hard to lose.
Another big matchup will be how each team, specifically the Bills, performs in the red zone.
The Bills are sixth in the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 63%.
On the contrary, the Steelers rank fifth in red zone touchdown percentage on the defensive side, only allowing a touchdown on 46% of drives that reach the redzone.
Whether or not the Bills can capitalize on their drives in the red zone will be a huge factor in this game.
They can’t let the Steelers hang around, and they can’t settle for field goals too often.
If the Bills can score touchdowns, not field goals, and they don’t beat themselves with turnovers, I think the Bills win this one by ten or more.
It’s also worth noting that in each of the three previous Bills-Steelers playoff matchups, the winner ended up making it all the way to the Super Bowl.
The 5th Quarter Wild Card Predictions
Cleveland vs Houston (Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m., NBC):
Favorite: Cleveland by 2.5 points
Mitch: 27-23 Houston
Matt: 20-17 Cleveland
Parker: 27-20 Cleveland
Miami vs Kansas City (Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m., Peacock):
Favorite: Kansas City by four points
Mitch: 28-17 Kansas City
Matt: 24-20 Kansas City
Parker: 27-24 Kansas City
Pittsburgh vs Buffalo (Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1 p.m., CBS):
Favorite: Buffalo by 10 points
Mitch: 31-13 Buffalo
Matt: 27-10 Buffalo
Parker: 33-10 Buffalo
Green Bay vs Dallas (Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m., FOX):
Favorite: Dallas by 7.5 points
Mitch: 35-32 Dallas
Matt: 37-34 Green Bay
Parker: 35-27 Dallas
L.A. Rams vs Detroit (Sunday, Jan. 14 at 8 p.m., NBC):
Favorite: Detroit by three points
Mitch: 28-27 Detroit
Matt: 31-30 Detroit
Parker: 30-28 L.A.
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay (Monday, Jan. 15 at 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN):
Favorite: Philadelphia by three points
Mitch: 31-23 Tampa Bay
Matt: 24-21 Tampa Bay
Parker: 24-17 Tampa Bay
“The 5th Quarter” is a weekly sports radio show on WCVF 88.9 FM hosted by Mitch Horucy, Matt Volz and Parker Gurnett.