MITCH HORUCY
Sports Editor
For a team that missed the playoffs for the first 17 years of the century, it’s now the seventh straight season the team will be in the postseason dance.
It’s now the longest active playoff streak in the NFL after the Kansas City Chiefs broke their 10-year streak this season.
This year will look different from what the Bills and Bills fans have become accustomed to, as they’ll be on the road in the wild card.
They slot into the sixth seed and have a first-round matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Jan. 11 at 1 p.m. on CBS.
The Jags come into this matchup on an eight-game win streak, including wins in nine of their last 10.
They’ve had a great turnaround after a 5-4 start to the year, but I do think they’ve taken advantage of an easy back half of the season.
Out of those eight games, two were against the Titans, two were against the Daniel Jones-less Colts and one was against the Jets.
That being said, they’re still a very good team.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had his best season since becoming a pro.
In their eight-game win streak, he has 24 total touchdowns to just five turnovers.
Jakobi Meyers has also been a huge addition for the Jags.
In nine games with Jacksonville, he has 42 receptions, 483 yards and three touchdowns.
On defense, their front seven is good with guys like Foyesade Oluokun and Josh Hines-Allen leading the way.
They’re in an interesting team that creates a lot of turnovers, scores points and plays a fun brand of football.
The Jags creating turnovers leads us right into the Bills’ first key to victory.
It’s a two-parter, but they go together with each other.
That key is to not turn the ball over and create a turnover, or win the turnover battle in other words.
Jacksonville is third in the league in turnover differential, coming in at +13 on the season.
They’re 8-1 when they win the turnover battle; the Bills are 1-5 when they lose that battle.
The Jags have 22 interceptions on the year, the second-most of any team in the league, so Josh Allen will have to have a clean game and not put the ball in harm’s way.
As for the other side, Lawarence is no stranger to turning it over either. He’s thrown 12 interceptions on the year, which is sixth-most in the league.
He also has the second highest turnover-worthy play rate (according to Pro Football Focus) amongst starting playoff quarterbacks.
The Bills are just outside the top 10 with 13 interceptions on the year.
They’re going to need one if they want to win.
The second key to victory for the Bills comes as a surprise to no one, but they have to establish James Cook early and often.
The 2025 NFL rushing title winner had a tremendous regular season and has been worth every penny that he was given this past offseason.
In his nine games with 100 or more rushing yards, the team is 8-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of the Texans.
Including scrimmage yards as well, the team is 0-4 when he has less than 100 total yards, excluding the season finale against the Jets.
It won’t come easy though, as the Jags have one of the best run defenses in the league.
They rank first in yards per game, they’re tied for second in yards per carry and they have the least amount of carries against them in the league.
If they can heat Cook up, it will open up much more for the team, including Dalton Kincaid, who should be fully healthy for the first time in a while.
The team is 5-1 when Kincaid goes for 40 or more yards, and they’re 5-0 when he scores a touchdown.
The Jags linebacker duo of Oluokun and Devin Lloyd is elite, but they’ll have their hands full trying to contain Cook and the Bills tight end room.
My final key is simple and will be a key for every Bills playoff game as long as Allen is on the team.
Let #17 take over.
He has 32 touchdowns to just four interceptions in his 13 playoff games to go along with 310 total yards per game.
Win or lose, the team has to go out on Allen’s terms.
He showed last year that he still has that gear but was let down by his team once again.
Allen has played at 31 of the 32 NFL stadiums.
The only one he hasn’t crossed off the list is Levi’s Stadium, home of the San Francisco 49ers.
If he can win three straight games, he’ll be able to cross it off the list and try to win the team’s first Super Bowl.
As for a prediction, it really could go either way.
At the time of writing, FanDuel has the Bills as a 1.5-point favorite.
The moneyline favors the Bills at –110, which surprises me, but it’s nearly a toss-up.
I think the Bills win, but it will be close.
It also won’t surprise me in the slightest if Jacksonville wins.
At the end of the day, it’ll come down to which quarterback can make one more play than the other.
Even though it’s been an up and down year, I still trust Allen over just about any quarterback in the league to do that.
I expect the over/under of 51.5 to hit the over easily in this game as well.
If the Bills do end up losing this game, I’d speak on it more in my column next week, but I think it could be the last game Sean McDermott coaches as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills.
However, we’ll cross that bridge if we get there.
The NFL is as wide open as it’s ever been, and it should be a tremendous playoff.
Prediction: 34-29 Buffalo
5th Quarter Predictions:
Los Angeles (NFC) vs Carolina (Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. on FOX)
Favorite: Los Angeles (N) -10.5
Mitch: 31-22 Los Angeles (NFC)
Jack: 27-14 Los Angeles (NFC)
Matt: 20-10 Los Angeles (NFC)
Green Bay vs Chicago (Saturday, Jan. 10, 8 p.m. on Prime Video)
Favorite: Green Bay –1.5
Mitch: 27-21 Chicago
Jack: 20-17 Chicago
Matt: 24-23 Chicago
Buffalo vs Jacksonville (Sunday, Jan 11, 1 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Buffalo –1.5
Mitch: 34-29 Buffalo
Jack: 30-27 Buffalo
Matt: 27-20 Buffalo
San Francisco vs Philadelphia (Sunday, Jan 11, 4:30 p.m. on FOX)
Favorite: Philadelphia –4.5
Mitch: 23-17 Philadelphia
Jack: 27-20 San Francisco
Matt: 31-21 Philadelphia
Los Angeles (AFC) vs New England (Sunday, Jan 11, 8 p.m. on NBC)
Favorite: New England –3.5
Mitch: 26-23 New England
Jack: 24-20 Los Angeles (AFC)
Matt: 20-17 Los Angeles (AFC)
Houston vs Pittsburgh (Monday, Jan 12, 8:15 p.m. on ABC)
Favorite: Houston –3
Mitch: 19-13 Houston
Jack: 17-7 Houston
Matt: 20-6 Houston