MITCH HORUCY
Sports Editor
After what felt like a game we’ve seen Buffalo lose time and time again, the Bills came out with a 27-24 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild card round.
It’s now the sixth straight year the Bills have won a postseason game, tying their longest streak set from 1988-93.
My biggest takeaways from this game are a mix of things we know, but also some pleasant surprises.
Starting with the obvious, if you have Josh Allen on your football team, you have a chance to win the game.
He played a nearly mistake-free game, totaling three touchdowns and no turnovers against a defense that finished the regular season second in the league in takeaways.
One of my keys to victory was inning the turnover battle, which the Bills did, two to one.
They also won this game without James Cook doing much.
Excluding the Week 18 game against the Jets, his 51 total scrimmage yards were his second-lowest total this season.
He also averaged just three yards per touch on his 17 touches, his lowest total this season.
The other three lowest yards-per-touch performances from Cook all took place in games the Bills lost, making this win all the more impressive for Allen.
The pleasant surprise from this game was the Bills defense.
Starting in Week 13, the Bills have allowed just 264 yards per game. That would put them at the top of the league.
The rush defense still isn’t great, but in that same timeframe, they’ve allowed 127 rushing yards per game.
That puts them in the middle of the pack in the NFL, which is an improvement.
Even from someone who has called for McDermott to be fired — and I would’ve if the Bills had lost this game — he has done a great job turning around this defense.
Moving onto the divisional round, I think I like this matchup better than the Jags.
By saying that, I mean that the Broncos are a better team than the Jags, but the Broncos play to the Bills strengths more.
Starting with the Bills’ offense against the Broncos defense, it will not be easy.
This Denver defense is looked at as a top-three unit in the league, with some ranking them as the top unit in the league.
They lead the league in sacks and rank second in both total defense and rushing defense.
One thing they don’t do particularly well, though, is creating turnovers.
In fact, they are –3 in turnover margin this season.
Without sounding like a broken record, the Bills need to stay clean and avoid turnovers.
Denver is 6-1 when winning the turnover battle.
For the Bills’ offense, if you have cleats, the team may need you to run some routes on Saturday.
In all seriousness, I’m not sure the injuries to Buffalo’s receiver room are as impactful as people are saying.
Having three active wide receivers on your roster isn’t ideal, but the team was never going to beat the Broncos on the outside anyway.
Their secondary is led by Pat Surtain, likely the best boundary corner in the sport.
I love the guys, but Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis weren’t going to beat Surtain on the perimeter.
I think we see a similar game plan on Saturday to the one we saw this past weekend against the Jags, so fans can prepare for a healthy dosage of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
While this isn’t fantasy football, it’s worth noting that the Broncos defense allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this season.
Shakir also had his biggest game of the season against the Houston Texans, who aren’t the exact same as the Broncos but get after the passer just as well.
Getting Shakir the ball quickly in space will be a point of emphasis for this offense.
Though Kincaid didn’t have a huge game statistically against Jacksonville, the team is now 6-0 when he scores a touchdown.
Using play action to bring down Denver’s aggressive linebacking core will free up both Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Signs are pointing toward Curtis Samuel playing his first game since Week 11 as well.
To keep it short, he has been a bad signing overall, but if there was ever a time for him to revive his 2020 self, it’s now.
Lastly, on offense, I think Cook will struggle to get himself going on the ground.
The Broncos defense ranks second in rushing yards per game, right behind the Jags.
I hope I’m wrong and the rushing attack can rebound after its worst performance of the season, but I’d expect the Bills offense to have to win without the performances we’ve become accustomed to from Cook.
On the defensive side of the ball, I like this matchup for the Bills a lot.
The Bills defense has shown that anyone can successfully run the ball against them, but the Broncos’ rushing attack is average.
Since their Week 12 bye, they average 112 rushing yards per game, which puts them in the league’s bottom 10.
As I alluded to before, though, the Jags came into the wild card round 20th in the league in rushing, and we saw what happened.
A huge piece that could help is the possible return of Ed Oliver.
At the time of writing, it’s still unclear if he will play, but signs are pointing to him doing so.
After dealing with an ankle injury to start his season combined with a bicep tear, Oliver has only played three games in the 2025 campaign.
However, he had three sacks and seven tackles for loss (TFLs) in those three games.
It was the best football he’s played in his career.
It’ll be a tough task, but if he can return to a level close to what he was playing at, he can create problems in both the rushing and passing game.
Speaking of the passing game, I am extremely confident in the Bills secondary.
Starting with cornerback Tre’Davious White, I truly am blown away at his play at the end of the season.
After a torn ACL and Achilles, he has come back and looked like his 2019 All-Pro self.
In the last five games, White has been the highest graded cornerback in the league.
He’s totaled seven interceptions and forced incompletions and has allowed just a 33.2 passer rating when targeted, which leads all cornerbacks. All stats are according to PFF.
Him playing at this level across from Christian Benford, who is an established top-15 perimeter corner in the league, will create trouble for Denver quarterback Bo Nix.
The loss of Jordan Poyer is huge, but not the end of the world.
Cole Bishop’s play opposite of Poyer has been tremendous, so much so though that I thought he deserved some All-Pro votes.
If he wasn’t playing at this level, I’d be much more worried.
As for who will start, it looks like it’s between Jordan Hancock, who finished the game for Poyer against Jacksonville, Damar Hamlin, who hasn’t played since Week 5, and Darnell Savage.
Cam Lewis is also an option, but I don’t think he’ll get the nod.
Personally, I’d start Hancock. His play has been shaky, but he’s played a lot of high stakes games at Ohio State and has the ability. He just needs to trust his instincts more.
The Bills defensive line is the most important position group in this game in my eyes.
If they can get after Nix, they have a great chance to win.
Nix has struggled greatly under pressure this season, having just a 48% completion percentage when pressured, compared to 69.7% when he’s kept clean.
He also has a 3.6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he isn’t pressured.
That ratio drops to 1.16-to-1 when he is pressured.
Joey Bosa was signed for these moments. He’s healthy, and this is the time he needs to show up.
For a prediction, I think the Bills get it done.
“Mile High” is a tough environment to play in, especially in the playoffs.
Denver will be well-rested and ready to go, but it won’t matter.
The first half will likely be low scoring, and the half will end with Buffalo ahead 13-6.
The second half is where the Bills will take over and leave no questions about the game.
Allen probably won’t put up video game numbers but will have a similar game to his wild card performance: mistake-free.
Prediction: 29-16 Buffalo
5th Quarter Predictions:
Standings:
Mitch: 5-1
Matt: 4-2
Jack: 5-1
Buffalo vs Denver (Saturday, Jan. 17, 4:30 p.m. on CBS)
Favorite: Denver –1.5
Mitch: 29-16 Buffalo
Jack: 25-22 Denver
Matt: 23-20 Buffalo
San Francisco vs Seattle (Saturday, Jan. 17, 8 p.m. on Fox)
Favorite: Seattle –7
Mitch: 31-23 Seattle
Jack: 34-24 Seattle
Matt: 24-17 Seattle
Houston vs New England (Sunday, Jan. 18, 3 p.m. on ABC/ESPN)
Favorite: New England –3
Mitch: 20-16 New England
Jack: 20-17 Houston
Matt: 17-13 Houston
Los Angeles vs Chicago (Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 p.m. on NBC)
Favorite: Los Angeles –3.5
Mitch: 33- 28 Chicago
Jack: 30-23 Los Angeles
Matt: 37-34 (OT) Los Angeles